Saturday, 30 July 2016

Last week for Stanchart Trading

Have you prepared enough for the Stanchart Trading minimum commission begins on 01 Aug 2016.

穷小子 had done these approaches. Cut the short term and build the long term. In fact, most of them are cut on the next day after the announcement.

Sold small position with contract value ≤ $3,500 and less than 1,000 of shares,
Frasers Centrepoint Limited (TQ5) *got it back, and is in CDP currently*
ARA Asset Management (D1R)
Sheng Shiong (OV8)

Hold those stocks which are planned for mid-term,
STI ETF (ES3) *sold it already due to the recent great run*

Build those with higher contract value and 
more than 1,000 shares and are planned to hold for long term,
DBS (D05)
Singtel (Z74)
These two and together with CapitaComm Trust (C61U) will be transferred over to CDP

Bye Stanchart Trading

Wednesday, 20 July 2016

Portfolio Update: Purchased Frasers Centrepoint Limited

Since after almost 2 months from the last post about my observations on Waterway Point, 穷小子 finally managed to get a small position today.

The current book value is about $2.66. With based on today closing price of $1.52, I am quite comfortable with the 0.57 of the book value.

As mentioned in the previous post, there are 2 minor concerns which need to be considered before making the buy call. Low liquidity and High Debt.

Low liquidity
The low liquidity is not much of a concern to me. Having an intention to hold it for long-term, and since is a small position only, quite confident that I will be able to sell it at my target price in the far future.

High Debt
Based on the latest quarter report, the Net Debt/Equity is 87.5%, an increased from the previous quarter of 83.8%. 穷小子 is not that good in his fundamental analysis, but this seems to be a minor red flag. Looking forward to see a lower ratio in the next report with the recent IPO of Frasers Logistics & Industrial. Of course this shouldn't be the only measurement to gauge a company, will check on their upcoming report and keep track of it.

On the side track, notice that the 2-year low price is actually at $1.40 only. Did a simple maths calculations.
If the price really came down to this price (*touch wood*), it will be a 7.9% drop. With today closing price at $1.52, it will have a dividend yield of 5.66%. Hence, 2 years of dividend will be sufficient to cover it.
This purchased is about 4.5% of 穷小子's total portfolio only. Shall understand further on the upcoming report before adding any new positions.

Not to confused, its with the symbol TQ5

Monday, 18 July 2016

Breadtalk $1 promotion

Starting 12:16pm daily from 14th to 21st July.
As part of Breadtalk celebrations for their 16th anniversary, it is having a special promotion. $1 each for the 16 top Fan Favourites bread. 穷小子's style favourites.
穷小子 used to be a fan of Breadtalk too, but had "boycott" it at least 3 years ago, since when the price keep increasing annually. But everything changed for this week (only).

Let's sees what had 穷小子 noticed about this promotion.

  • It seems like every outlets are flooded with long queue for the past 4 days. Okie, maybe 穷小子 is a little over exaggerated, but even if is not every outlets, it is at least for these 4 outlets for sure which 穷小子 had visited, Toa Payoh, Yishun, Plaza Singapura and Vivocity.
  • The promotion started at 12:16pm, but the long queue had started building up from 12 noon onwards. Seems there are many customers are like 穷小子, hungry for it, but had to "boycott" it due to its price.
  • Once the bell hits 12:16pm, the cashiers and staffs start to clear the queue fast and efficiently. Wondering how much sales did this promotion had contributed.
  • Despite having to say limited quantities for each outlets, Breadtalk has been generous about this promotion. Can see that trays and trays of breads are coming out from their kitchen during the peak hours without delay, and its staffs are encouraging the customers to get as much as they like. 穷小子 has not seen the promotion being sold out for the past 4 nights so far.
  • They are using a sell less but many method. By selling at a cheaper price, it managed to get hold of a larger pool of market crowd.
穷小子 concludes that their sales revenue might increase significantly for this quarter because of this promotion. On the other hand, the company is having a P/E of 39.78 and dividend yield of 1.32%. No doubt it is a Growth company, but still, it does not have the traits to be included in 穷小子's watchlist (at least for now).

After its insensitive marketing tactic by selling our Ah Gong commemorative bun and the infamous Soya Bean Saga last year, can Breadtalk finally pull off a positive news headlines this year?

A gentle reminder, although it is at $1 only, please do not over purchased it. 穷小子 had bought 12 pieces in 3 days. Had to stop for now, else it became spending more instead of saving more.
This post may have came late, so, every one please enjoy the promotions before the deals ends.

穷小子's post is not and have no intentions of doing any advertisement for or against Breadtalk.

After 21 Jul, 穷小子 gonna resume "boycott" again. ^^

Thursday, 14 July 2016

NAV vs Market Value

What is Net Asset Value (NAV)
In layman's term NAV means how much a stock would have "worth", which is calculated by dividing the total value of all the securities in its portfolio, less any liabilities, by the number of fund shares outstanding

What is Market Value
In layman's term Market Value is the value of a company according to the stock market. Buyers and sellers used this price to buy and sell stock at a stock exchange.

Stock A
An ice-cream with NAV of $0.50 per scoop selling at $5.00 per scoop to its customers

Stock B
A packet of chicken rice with NAV of $3.00 selling at $3.50 per packet to its customers.

Often it would have been the case which we had seen, the newly opened ice-cream shop in town will have a much longer queue than a traditional chicken rice stall. The ice-cream are obviously over-priced and tasted normal or just slightly better than average but the customers willing to pay extra for a try, and also of course of the long queue syndrome. The ice cream price goes up along with its popularity.
A year later, the ice cream customers would have then realised that they had actually paid 10 times more for a normal ice cream. The customer would eventually went back to buy chicken rice for their daily lunch or dinner, which are only 1.17 times more than its value, and the ice cream stall would eventually closed down.

Stock Market
Stock A is a new hot IPO in town, with the price-to-net-asset-value (P/NAV) ratio of 10, or some called it Price / Book Value. Stock B have a P/NAV of 1.17 only.
Based on the P/NAV only, ignoring other factor, Stock B would be a better choice for long term investing.
Often, Stock A's price would goes up during the early stage due to the fact that many would rush to and grab a bite, and some would take this newly IPO stock in town for a try, hoping that it can be a multi-baggers stock. Most of the cases, the trend and popularity dies off eventually, Stock A daily volume drops, and people will turn back to Stock B, a good old dividend stock.

Another example is if we would take a look at our three largest local bank.

NAV, estimated based on Yahoo finance
DBS - $16.72, P/NAV at 0.95x
OCBC - $8.57, P/NAV at 1.03x
UOB - $19.06, P/NAV at 0.97x

Market Value, based on today closed price
DBS - $15.95
OCBC - $8.86
UOB - $18.62

Which is cheaper?
DBS which has the lowest NAV or OCBC with the lowest Market Value?
Which is more expensive?
OCBC which has the highest NAV, or UOB with the highest Market Value?

What's your take?
Want to get a taste of the new ice cream in town which everybody are rushing to queue, or choose to take a boring chicken rice for your daily meals.

Thursday, 7 July 2016

Was it a right choice to sold off Noble?

A recapped, about a month after the sold off, and about a week after it XR. Have sold off Noble shares on 03 Jun 2016. Let's see whether did 穷小子 had made the right choices so far.

From the price at $0.26 on 03 Jun 2016, to the closed price at $0.215 on 27 Jun 2016 (the day before XR). It is about a drop of 17.3%.

Based on the formula, and with the rights issued price of $0.11, the theoretical price should be $0.1625. Due to whatever the reasons, it closed at $0.18 on the 28 Jun 2016 (the XR date) which is higher than the theoretical price.

The mother share closed at $0.184 today, 07 July, and with Noble R share closed at 0.074.

穷小子 sold his 3,000 shares on 03 Jun, the value is about $780.

If 穷小子 had hold his shares until now, and with the exercise of the rights shares:
The total value for the 6,000 shares will be valued at $1,104 based on the today's closed price at $0.184, and not forgetting to deduct $330 from this for the purchasing of the rights shares, which gives about $774.
Okie, no much difference in value, only $6. The few hundreds actually makes no much differences from the 88% lost anyway.

As mentioned in the previous post, it is not the dollar which made the sell call, but is more on the trust and confidence in this company.
With the sudden departure of the CEO's and its founder, it's just doesn't feel comfortable with purchasing the rights, and especially with the reason of having the company's intention to used it for repaying the debts. All these doesn't sum up as a good choice.
Not mentioning about the Minimum Trade Price rules, how will Noble tackle it? From the way 穷小子 sees it is either do a share consolidation or delist it from SGX, unless the managing board have new tricks under their sleeves.

It may continue its downwards trend from where it is currently. This shall be the last post regarding to Noble. Have decided to remove this from my watchlist. I don't see the point of keeping track of this any further, unless its fundamentals have changed.

On the side track, 穷小子 managed to have some profits from the Euro. Hehe.

Friday, 1 July 2016

穷小子's mid-year accomplishment

We are already half way through 2016. What has 穷小子 accomplished?

Started a blog
Of course the first will be starting a new blog, this blog. ^^

Attended first Annual General Meeting
穷小子 has successfully attended his first AGM. This was the first AGM ever attended although started buying shares since 2009. Slightly more than 30% of the portfolio is OCBC, hence made the decision to take a day leave to attend OCBC AGM this year. I must say, it is really an eye-opener. The CEO and board of directors presented themselves well. A lot seniors citizen, so my guess is that they may be the long time loyal investors which the CEO himself had also mentioned. Do not judge a book by its cover I must say, the investors who attended are with different appearances, attire, age groups and from all walks of life. Of course, not forget to mention about the infamous food queue, what a sight. Will be attending more for the upcoming year and try to do few write up about them.

Finished reading a book
穷小子 don't like to read books. Managed to finish up One Up on Wall Street is a good start at least. Wouldn't elaborate more about this, as the review is here. Have another good read on a book next year? Let's try.

Beating the STI
穷小子 must admit this. He had never managed to beat STI for the past few years. Beating the STI shall be his small steps to start with.
As of the last day of Jun, STI is +0.174% for the past 6 months. STI ETF is -0.69%.
If based on those stocks which purchased on 2016 YTD, is +8.575%.
If based on existing portfolio is approximately +3.413%.
Despite the Brexit recently, my portfolio managed to beat the STI at least, target achieved. This will be a benchmark for my humble target for now.

Cleared his IPPT
Managed to get Silver for the new IPPT system. $300 incentives. Translate it into dividends, it will be a year's worth of dividend if you owns 500 of DBS shares. Only every Singapore's son will understand this, the sufferings and rewards in it.

Achieving a passive income
Actually do not have a feasible target for this at the moment. Up to date, achieving at about $11 per day. Perhaps after this year shall see how much it can grows, and shall set a realistic target at end of this year.
Let it Grow! Let it Grow!

Poor Learn Rich (穷小子日记)