穷小子 had sold some of his banks shares last week after combo Reits purchased earlier. Not all, but sold about 1/3 of DBS and 1/3 of OCBC from the overall portfolio. This move is to re-balance his portfolio, 穷小子 still have confident in our local banks for long term.
Moreover, last week is also seems to be a good opportunity to cash out to build up the warchest, after some good run on these 2 banks for the past recent days.
After these sell off, OCBC is still holding up a majority of the portfolio at about 30% and DBS at a healthy range of about 10%.
Shall wait at the sidelines to see what will happened in Dec, if there is any rate hike, before making any more purchases.
Many companies to buy, but with little cash on hand.
Monday, 21 November 2016
Wednesday, 16 November 2016
Combo Reits Purchased!!
Been looking for a chance to get some REIT into 穷小子's portfolio, and patience has been rewarded finally. The current price may not be the lowest yet, but is a good opportunity to have a small position first. If rates hike, second purchase opportunity shall come into play.
Suntec Reit
Manage to get a comfortable 6.43% yield from yesterday. Furthermore, the price dropped from 1 month high at $1.75 to a close at $1.59 yesterday. That is a almost a 10% drop in a month. Is this a great bargain or a trap? Only time will tell.
Aim AMP Capital Industrial Reit
First time got into Industrial REIT. Not sure if this is a sunset industry, but no harm having a small position to get a 8.63%. This is one of the lowest holdings in 穷小子's portfolio.
穷小子 is trying to get a better position before the December US rates announcement. Whether hike or not, shall prepare different strategies for both scenarios.
Suntec Reit
Manage to get a comfortable 6.43% yield from yesterday. Furthermore, the price dropped from 1 month high at $1.75 to a close at $1.59 yesterday. That is a almost a 10% drop in a month. Is this a great bargain or a trap? Only time will tell.
Aim AMP Capital Industrial Reit
First time got into Industrial REIT. Not sure if this is a sunset industry, but no harm having a small position to get a 8.63%. This is one of the lowest holdings in 穷小子's portfolio.
穷小子 is trying to get a better position before the December US rates announcement. Whether hike or not, shall prepare different strategies for both scenarios.
Wednesday, 9 November 2016
Trump Presidency.. What next?
穷小子 must admit this, was expecting a close fight, but didn't expect and don't wish Trump to win the campaign.
After today, guess that everyone should have know by now that any thing can happened in this world. First half of the year is Brexit, and second half is Trump. On a side note, 穷小子 vote goes to Brexit.
What next?
穷小子's guess would be America will grow stronger as promised. Mr Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate international trade agreements. He is going to bring the jobs back to America. The new agreements may bias towards the Americans.
In short term, we may see funds and monies will flow back to the Americans. In a longer term, we may see a stronger USD again. Strong USD means that Gold price will increase as well.
On the other hand, with a stronger America, it may seems the rest of the world will grow weaker. Not literally the rest grew weaker, but the difference will be there.
Earlier this month, analyst are expecting a 76% probability of a rate hike by year-end, but now, it may have dropped to 20% or lower. Investors have tended to favor Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home and on the world stage. Uncertainties doesn't favor the Fed's decision for a rate hike now.
Perhaps his victory is because of "Make America Great Again!!" Those are his words which 穷小子 had heard pretty much during his rally. The victory seems good for American but may be bad for rest of the world. The Americans have made their choice, let's respect and trust their decisions. The Americans know what is the best for them.
Hopefully can use this opportunity to buy some undervalue stocks. With the recent price drop, REITs may appears to be a safer ground if there isn't rate hike next month.
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain
After today, guess that everyone should have know by now that any thing can happened in this world. First half of the year is Brexit, and second half is Trump. On a side note, 穷小子 vote goes to Brexit.
What next?
穷小子's guess would be America will grow stronger as promised. Mr Trump has pledged to tear up or renegotiate international trade agreements. He is going to bring the jobs back to America. The new agreements may bias towards the Americans.
In short term, we may see funds and monies will flow back to the Americans. In a longer term, we may see a stronger USD again. Strong USD means that Gold price will increase as well.
On the other hand, with a stronger America, it may seems the rest of the world will grow weaker. Not literally the rest grew weaker, but the difference will be there.
Earlier this month, analyst are expecting a 76% probability of a rate hike by year-end, but now, it may have dropped to 20% or lower. Investors have tended to favor Trump's Democratic rival Hillary Clinton as a status quo candidate who would be considered a safe pair of hands at home and on the world stage. Uncertainties doesn't favor the Fed's decision for a rate hike now.
Perhaps his victory is because of "Make America Great Again!!" Those are his words which 穷小子 had heard pretty much during his rally. The victory seems good for American but may be bad for rest of the world. The Americans have made their choice, let's respect and trust their decisions. The Americans know what is the best for them.
Hopefully can use this opportunity to buy some undervalue stocks. With the recent price drop, REITs may appears to be a safer ground if there isn't rate hike next month.
#MakeAmericaGreatAgain
Thursday, 3 November 2016
Small buy position for M1
Despite M1 having a bad Third Quarter results, 穷小子 bought M1 with a small position. Yes, 穷小子 did mentioned that he will not touch unless M1 hits $2 or after fourth telco announcements. But.. But.. It is too irresistible for not having a small bite to average down the overall price. Based on few points below.
- Based on today closing price, it gives a return yield of 7.42%. Assuming if the profits drops by 20%, and provided if the payout policy doesn't change, the yield will be somewhere around 5.9% . Still acceptable.
- Temasek Holdings had deemed 550K of shares at $2.101 few days ago. Temasek's deemed interests arises to 21.04% from 20.98%, via aggregation of the deemed interests held by KCL and DBSH. This boost the company's confident too.
- The volume hits 12,064,500 immediately the next trading day after the news announced. Something may be brewing.
- Pinned hope on fourth telco does not realised.
Wednesday, 19 October 2016
M1 Third Quarter 2016 Results
M1 share price plunged 5.15% today, a $0.12 drop, to $2.21 today. This is much expected from the poor 3Q16 results released yesterday.
穷小子 mentioned in the previous post that M1 is having a juicy dividend yield of 6.38%, but because of fourth telco is approaching, patience prevails, and still waiting at the sidelines. Take a quick look on the 3Q2016 results.
Key Financial Highlights
穷小子 mentioned in the previous post that M1 is having a juicy dividend yield of 6.38%, but because of fourth telco is approaching, patience prevails, and still waiting at the sidelines. Take a quick look on the 3Q2016 results.
Key Financial Highlights
 |
| Operating Revenue $277.6m to $249.1m, -10.3% |
 |
| Cost of sales for 9 months $380.9m to $294.6m, -22.7% |
 |
| Net Profit after tax $44.9m to $34.4m, -23.4% |
 |
Cash & Cash equivalents, -62.9%
Net debt. 20.5%
Net debt/EBITDA, 24.8%
EPS, -12.0%
All these financial leverage are statistically bad.
|
Enough of the current statistic facts, let's see the good side of it.
As we all have known, majority of Singapore's consumers are bounded by the traditional 2 years contracts. Hence, the customer base is one of the most important factors to estimate the future, which at least how 穷小子 think.
Key Performance
Well, at least its 2 main business pillars', mobile and fixed services, base are increasing, at least at a slow pace.
Conclusion
Based on today closed price, the yield is about 6.9%, but of course, pretty much expecting a heavy cut to the dividends. Cut by how much is the big question for a dividend stock.
The management outlook are estimating a decline in FY2016 net profit after tax to be around the year-to-date range.
Assuming there will be a drop of 16% in EPS for FY2016, and the payout policy remains at 80%, we may be having a dividend of 12.8 cents for the next FY.
穷小子 is expecting few bad news to happen which can really hurt M1's share price deeply.
- News of fourth telco
- FY2016 results
- Cut in dividend
- Finally the completion of fourth telco (depending)
Hence not intending to average down in the near future. The first step which 穷小子 will be taking would be either wait for the price to hit at least $2.00 (psychological level), or after the fourth telco decision announced. Depends on whichever earlier.
As we all have known, majority of Singapore's consumers are bounded by the traditional 2 years contracts. Hence, the customer base is one of the most important factors to estimate the future, which at least how 穷小子 think.
Key Performance
 |
| Mobile Customer base |
 |
| Mobile Market Share |
 |
| Fixed services Customer base |
Conclusion
Based on today closed price, the yield is about 6.9%, but of course, pretty much expecting a heavy cut to the dividends. Cut by how much is the big question for a dividend stock.
The management outlook are estimating a decline in FY2016 net profit after tax to be around the year-to-date range.
Assuming there will be a drop of 16% in EPS for FY2016, and the payout policy remains at 80%, we may be having a dividend of 12.8 cents for the next FY.
穷小子 is expecting few bad news to happen which can really hurt M1's share price deeply.
- News of fourth telco
- FY2016 results
- Cut in dividend
- Finally the completion of fourth telco (depending)
Hence not intending to average down in the near future. The first step which 穷小子 will be taking would be either wait for the price to hit at least $2.00 (psychological level), or after the fourth telco decision announced. Depends on whichever earlier.
Lastly, bear in mind that the worst fearful concern is that, there is still no confirmation about a fourth telco yet, there is not even a first step made by the fourth telco, but M1 profits is already dropped hard. Imagine what can this fourth telco do more hurting if it realised.
P.S. 穷小子 is not spreading fear here. M1 is about 10.9% of his total portfolio now.
P.S. 穷小子 is not spreading fear here. M1 is about 10.9% of his total portfolio now.
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