Wednesday, 1 March 2017

February's Portfolio update

We had ended the first two months of 2017, let's see how 穷小子's portfolio performed.

穷小子 has not done anything to his portfolio in 2017 yet.
- Prices are not high enough to sell
- Prices are not low enough to buy
- More importantly is, 穷小子's pocket is still empty. Still building his warchest.

穷小子's portfolio update:

For the period of these first two months, 穷小子 will be receiving a total of S$812.82 of dividends. Slightly more than half of it is much contributed by the newly purchased REITs, feels that these are good purchases so far.

Looking at ComfortDelgro currently after reading some of the thoughts from some of the bloggers and forumers. While trying to wait for his salary and dividends to come in this week, ComfortDelgro had slowly creeping upwards day by day. Shall wait for an opportunity for a good price.

March US interest rates hike
The odds of an increase have jumped above 70 per cent, from 40 percent on Friday. If ComfortDelgro price doesn't comes down, then 穷小子 may change his direction to REITs again. Made quite a good purchases last December, looking to add more either MCT or FCT.

Ezra's joint venture files for bankruptcy. Will this become a domino effects which caused another sell-down on the banks again? As what had happened last year? 穷小子 don't know too, but it will be wise to save some money for banks shopping.

Year 2017
Total dividends: S$812.82
Average dividends per month: S$406.41
Average dividends per day: S$13.78

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

First big spending in 2017

If you had read about 穷小子's style, you would have known that he does not like to have huge spending. Furthermore, he paid them on the spot this time without any much delay. So what did he had bought exactly?

A trip to Turkey, with Air Tickets, Hotels and taxes all in, excluding the tipping and optional. That's right. 穷小子 loves to travel. When was the last time when he spent thousands? Hmm. Think that would be another travel trip, a free and easy to Japan in 2015. He made the payment on the spot at the travel fair last weekend. Don't worry, he had actually did much surveys and comparisons beforehand.
$1389, the exact amount he spent. Fair enough. This is not really a huge amount, but it just doesn't fit into 穷小子's style. Too bad, he just simply cant escape the temptations of it. He loves to explore new things, experience new cultures and interacts with different people. Of course, there is still a passion for his photography. Frugal, but should spent when is worth it, else what is the point for living without its fullest? Experience and passion is something that you can't buy with money literally.

At the travel fair, these are what 穷小子 had observed.

  • There are still a lot of people at the fair. Some maybe for enquires, some may have made the purchase, but the crowd is definitely there. Either we are still far from recessions, or we will only start to fear when the crisis really hit on us.
  • Suntec seems to be losing out at travel events. Natas Fair and Travel Revolutions is held at Expo and Marina Exp respectively since long time ago, if not, for the past 3 years at least. Although the Chan Brothers and other agencies did held concurrently during the same period at Suntec, they are not taking the conventional halls, but only the concourse area.
  • SIA is celebrating their 70th anniversary this year (some good thing to share), and they are partnering with Natas Fair and Travel Revolutions for last and this week respectively. With this, 穷小子 noticed that SIA is available for most of the long-haul flight, this will boost their sales this year if the promotions worked out perfectly for them.
  • 穷小子 will be taking SIA for his upcoming trip as well. He did his homework before the fair since last year. He concludes that the price which he paid for the package tour is lesser than by purely purchasing the air tickets from SIA directly. Flights only to Turkey by SIA is more than $1400, but package tour with hotels is less than $1400. Dont know how they had managed it, but nothing new here, seems like there are some collaborations between SIA and the travel agencies. Not only SIA, other airlines as well.
  • Travel nowadays is definitely much cheaper now than years and decades ago. The YOLO mindset by the younger generations are definitely affecting their parents or even grandparents. Teenagers and young adults are no longer the only target audience anymore, the crowds which 穷小子 observed are occupied by the groups of elder generations actually, who want to travel but avoid the hassles of planning the itineraries themselves.
  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway will invest billions of dollars into the US airline industry, for the second time within six months. The move showed a stunning change of heart for Buffett, who once referred to the US airline industry as a “deathtrap for investors.” Time are changing, and we need to adapt and adopt.
  • SIA is hurting by the increase of budget airlines and from the pressure by the fellow famous Airlines brands. How SIA collaborate with travel agencies is an important factor for SIA to cut its edge out from this challenge industry.
  • SIA has one unique advantage over its competitors, after all, SIA is our iconic brand which carries Singapore flag to fly across worldwide. 穷小子 confirm support SIA if the price doesn't differ by much, and bet that most of the fellow locals feels the same way too.

穷小子 not invested in SIA currently, but start to monitor it.

First time going for a guided tour instead of having a DIY trip. How would the trip be like? We will know it in April.

P.S. Hmm. No wonder he can save almost 50% of his salary for 2016, because he only went to Malaysia and Thailand for that year

Saturday, 4 February 2017

Starhub FY 2016 Financial Results

Starhub FY 2016 results was released last evening. Disappointed results indeed, and seems worse than M1. This shall be a short post with no fancy charts or iconic pictures. 穷小子 had no mood to elaborate further but will not sugar-coat the results.
If you had followed 穷小子 throughout, you must have known that 穷小子 had bought the telcos at early 2015, which is around the all time high and is one of the bad moves. Mainly due to the greed on the attractive dividends yield at that time, and no patience. 穷小子 is not trying to bad-mouth the company but serve more of a reminder to himself. Do remember that he is affected as well.
Total telcos shares holdings is about 29.71% of the total portfolio , and among this telcos shares holdings, Starhub is holding at about 47.68% as of yesterday.

In summary, YoY results:
Total revenue, down 2%
EBITDA, down 3%
Net Profit after Tax, down 8%
FCF / Fully Diluted Share, down 15%

More disappointed at the QoQ results:
Total revenue, Non significant changes
EBITDA, down 14%
Net Profit after Tax, down 33%
FCF / Fully Diluted Share, down more than 300%

Most disappointed will be on the dividends.
FY 2016 will be maintained at $0.05 per quarter, but intend to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.04 per quarter for FY 2017.

Moving forward, 穷小子 will not panic sell, but plan to average down slowly whenever possible.
The attractiveness for this stock gets dimmer as the forecast payout for FY 2017 will be at $0.04 per quarter, $0.16 per year, a 20% cut. This greatly change the stories for 穷小子on Starhub, for all the reasons which he bought in the first place.
Next step will be work hard, save more, and build more warchest. The telco industry in Singapore will going to be a long cold war. Embrace for a sell down on Monday, but who knows how Mr Market may react irrationally again.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) FY 2016 Financial Results

CCT released their FY 2016 Financial Results this morning. Seems a strong results for 2016 overall per se. 穷小子 shall touch on some of the key factors.
CapitaGreen's contributions is 100% with effect from 01 Sep 2016
Starting off with the much anticipated on CapitaGreen contributions injections to the portfolio. Note that its contributions is 100% only from 01 Sep 2016 onwards, so expecting the 11% to grow continuously for its full contributions in FY 2017. This will be a good news for investors, and if remember correctly, CapitaGreen was funded internally by CCT, with no rights issued that time.
Portfolio up by 13.6% YoY
Portfolio was up by 13.6% YoY, and again mainly due to the increased stake in CapitaGreen.
Debt Maturity
Debt maturity are evenly spread for the next 6 years with 38% matured on FY 2020. Once again, S$890M (27%) are due to the increased stake in CapitaGreen.
CCT did measures to curb the interest rate hikes effects. Only 20% of the borrowings are on Floating Rate.
Portfolio Occupancy rate
Despite oversupply of offices for past few years, CCT is able to consistently above market occupancy, ending the last quarter of 2016 with 97.1% against 95.8%.
Monthly average office rent
Although there is a dipped of 0.2% in the last QoQ, it has been an impressive increasing for the past 17 quarters consecutively.
Well spread of portfolio lease expiry although with majority on 2019. 25% and 7% for Office and Retail respectively.
Consistently delivery value
Every investors' favourite, including 穷小子 too. Income, Assets, DPU and NAV increasing consistently over the years. As Peter Lynch stated in "Beating the Street", "The dividend is such an important factor in the success of many stocks that you could hardly go wrong by making an entire portfolio of companies that have raised their dividends for 10 or 20 years in a row."
Sounds logical.
Consistently above 90%
CCT's portfolio committed an impressive occupancy rate of above 90% consistently for the past 10 years. If omitted the 94.8% in 2009 which is due to Global Financial Crisis, technically speaking should above 95% consistently.

Maybe 穷小子 is bias and a bit of exaggerating in this review because this is the highest holdings REITs stock in his portfolio, but an impressive 10 years track records doesn't lies.
穷小子's concludes that this can be one of the "safe" stock for now until 2019 and 2020, the year which has the most portfolio lease expiry and the highest debt maturity amongst respectively. 穷小子 believes that the management will take necessary measures when the time are nearer.

Sunday, 8 January 2017

What a good start for 2017!!

What a good start for 2017!! STI from 2880.76 on the last day of 2016 to 2962.63 on the end of first week, that's almost a 100 points, roughly 2.84% increased, for a short 4 days. Can we see a STI 3000 by month end?
穷小子 shared about his Christmas Shopping previously, so how have they performed?

Capital Gains
Those REITs which bought on the last month of 2016, grew from a low of negative 2.54% to positive 2.68% averagely. Seems like a strong comeback of 5.22% within 2 weeks. Hmm. But REITs are meant for long-term anyway. Hehe~~

Dividend Yield
These 4 REITs return an average dividend yield of 5.87%. Aiming for a 6% average initially, but perhaps too impatient and afraid of missing the opportunities.

Assuming if the prices and dividend payouts are remain around this range for 2017, these 4 REITs may be able to return a total of about 8.55% this year. Capital Gain + Dividend Gain.
Shall accumulate and re-balance the portfolio if rate hikes again. Is this so called a 把危机转变为商机? Shall revisit this post again by end of 2017.

Lets see how the second week of 2017 performs.