Saturday, 30 December 2017

穷小子's 2017 accomplishments

We are coming towards the end of 2017. It had been a while since 穷小子's post, so what is he "busying" at?

2017 is a bullish year as 穷小子 would say. Despite with all the bad news, all doomsayers negative headlines, DJI managed to hit more than 25% YTD and STI more than 17% YTD. Furthermore, Singapore economy grows 5.2% in Q3, with 2017 forecast raised to 3-3.5%. With such a good run this year, 穷小子 actually sitting on his current portfolio without much major changes to it.

Below are the quick updates since 穷小子's last post.

Had divested about 30% of OCBC shares from his portfolio. Mainly is to take profits, and is already 1.3x times more than book value. In another words, it is expensive now.

Participated in its rights exercises, and applied for excess as well. The current price is higher than its pre-XR price, seems had made the right decision on getting more. CCT is still the highest holding in 穷小子's REITs portfolio, and became the second highest in the overall portfolio, just behind OCBC. Yes, despite after 30% divestment of OCBC, OCBC still has the highest weightage.

The IPO trends is back with especially most of them are listed in the second half of the year.

  • NetLink Trust, Got some in the IPO and bought some in the open market. Seems to be a monopolised business, for now at least. Main reason is buy for it stability. True enough, the price doesn't fluctuate much from its IPO price.
  • Cromwell Reit, may not be a best of the REITs, but definitely is a good tool to have an exposure in the Europe sector. Main reason is for its good diversification with 74 properties, and exposure to non-local business.
  • Keppel-KBS Reit, pretty much same reasons as Cromwell Reit, to have an exposure in foreign countries. Unfortunately, 穷小子 didn't manage to get any of it from the IPO. Intending to buy from the open market, but the forex spread via the brokerage is too much, hence give up on this REIT. Will look into this again if the price is at around its book value.

Invested a small amount in ThaiBev few weeks back for a start, with seeing the potential on its growth. Mr Market doesn't seems to agree much on the deal with the amount they spent on acquiring Sabeco. Looking to average down if opportunity comes.

穷小子 "closed shop" for year 2017 after the investment in ThaiBev.
Year 2017
Total dividends collected: S$5,129.17
Average dividends per month: S$427.44
Average dividends per day: S$14.05

STI index increased by 18.13%
STI ETF increased by 20.76%
穷小子's portfolio increased by 23.76% (beats STI ETF finally)
Looking forward to 2018, Cheers!!~

Wait a minute, so what 穷小子 has been doing for the past few months?
穷小子 got addicted in Carousell-ing. 穷小子 had an account with Carousell for more than 2 years ago, but started using it recently only.
It might be an useless and old item but it may be a precious and new item to others. Why not share them around and still can make a small cash out of it, rather than throwing them into your bin.

*Not advertising for Carousell

Saturday, 1 July 2017

穷小子's 2017 mid-year accomplishment

We are in the mid of 2017. Many things had happened during the past 6 months, especially with the interest rate hike last month. What 穷小子 had accomplished?

Financial's achievement
Attended quite a few of AGMs this year. Fraser Centrepoint Trust, CapitaComm Trust, and OCBC. Learned quite a few insights from the management of each company. If not due to overseas and other commitments, 穷小子 may have attended more. Anyway there will always be next year.

Not much of purchase in 2017. Banks and REITs are "expensive" for now, REITs price doesn't drop much despite of the interest rates, hence which left with Telcos only. Yes, it is a stormy period for telcos industry now, hope that the brave will be rewarded. They are still in the red, but thankfully only bought in small each time and now sitting comfortably at about 5% yield.

Lady luck is on 穷小子. He managed to get Sanli shares from the IPO. Sold immediately during the pre-open market on the very first day of trading. Closed the position with almost 78% of profits. Thanks for Mr IPO for his 3 chilli ratings.

Health's accomplishments
Only participated 1 run so far this year with 2XU Half-Marathon. Taken supplements during the whole run, and managed to complete the half-marathon without any cramps within 3 hours finally. A Personal achievement achieved. Thinking of hanging up his running shoes and look for other sports to keep himself fit.
IPPT still have not clear yet for this year. Starts to train now before his birthday cycle ends.

Self-Improvement's achievement
Obtained a certifications for the professional area related. Next is to target to complete Beating the Street by Peter Lynch by end of the year.

Year 2017
Total dividends collected: S$2,457.18
Average dividends per month: S$409.53
Average dividends per day: S$13.58

Sunday, 30 April 2017

April's Portfolio update

Finally we are at the last day of April 2017. As most of the companies had their Annual report out and AGM done, it is time for 穷小子, to update his portfolio.
Don't have any much significant changes to his portfolio to date, except for the small purchase of Singtel and Starhub. Main reason to scoop this small portion is due to the recent sell down after the TPG's Australia news and average down, on Singtel and Starhub respectively.

Year 2017
Total dividends: S$2457.18
Average dividends per month: S$491.43
Average dividends per day: S$16.27

Oil & Gas

Saturday, 29 April 2017

OCBC 80th Annual General Meeting

穷小子 not intending to blog about this initially, but there is something he must share. Attended the AGM yesterday, and OCBC's CEO shook hands with 穷小子. Wahaha!! Not that 穷小子 is some kind of VIP, but the shaking of hands is because Mr Tsien is courtesy and polite, and greeted us with a Good Afternoon. Is a simple gesture, but is the effort which he had made counts. Feels so appreciated when he says Good Afternoon and Thanks us for coming. He don't have to do so, but he did. Applause!!
He walked from the front row and to the walkway column, where 穷小子 is sitted, to shake hands with each of us. By the way, all of these were happened very early, 10 mins before the financial performance presentation starts, and very much before the AGM.

With the presentation of the financial performance start..

穷小子 had to admit that he got lost when CEO is presenting the annual financial performance, so wouldn't share much of that in details. 穷小子 is non-financial background after all. Lol.

CEO shared with us that oil price at $70 will be required for the Oil and Gas industry to break even, and $60 for the lenders to break even. To further supplement, CEO also mentioned that OCBC can't confirm if the worst for O&G is over, but pointing out that 2017 will be a better year than the year before.

A shareholder question about the status of the divestment of United Engineers, and will there be any special dividends after the divestment?
- CEO answered that it is premature to discuss on the divestment status right now.

Another shareholder pointed out that continuation of this news will demoralized the shareholders and the public. Is there any ways or methods which OCBC's management can assist or expedite on the progress?
- Although OCBC is a stakeholder of UE Limited, UE works as an individual entity and will leave the decisions to UE's management.

China is second largest contributor to the profits after Singapore.

and so the AGM begins...

Management commented that higher interest rates is good for banks generally.

Chairman commented that OCBC CEO's remuneration had the most reduction among the 3 banks' CEO.

Why is there no Scrip dividend? Another shareholder commented that it is disturbing that some years have and some do not, which resulted with odd shares remains.
- Chairman answered that OCBC is in a strong capital position. This decision allows them to deploy the cash productively, and secondly, scrip will caused the diluting of share prices.
Ironically, most of us want scrip. Hmm, does this means the company has many money lying around? If dividend payout without scrip options means that OCBC have many cash, so does that means OCBC have less cash if with scrip options, and which means bad for the company? Guess there is no one plus one kind of direct answer. Management had to review the company's capital position at the right time to decide whether to payout in scrip or not.
Can see that most of the shareholders are chanting, "We want Scrip! We want Scrip!" Very unlikely that there will be any scrip dividends for 2017 after hearing from Chairman and CEO.

A shareholder asked why isn't there any 80th anniversary special dividends? The same question was raised during the last AGM.
- Same answer. The management will review its capital at the right time and decide accordingly. Guess that means they had decided not to give.
On a second thought to this, if the capital review on the scrip dividend decided to pay out dividends in cash, then it is contradicting to the above as in why not use the capital to give special dividends? Hmm. Or at least increase the dividends, which 穷小子 is expecting an increase in dividend. This link to another question, but Chairman stated that we should be looking at the payout ratio. Is like egg first or chicken first. Haha. But anyway, the trust is still with the OCBC's directors and CEO, and believe their decisions are made based on the company's best interest.

There is no "hungry ghosts" in this year's AGM. The doors are open and all the "hungry ghosts" are allow to get their snacks sets before the AGM started. This prevented the ugly scene which was experience last year. The whole AGM is enjoyable until Resolution 4(b). A lady keep pressing questions on the diversity the director, e.g. gender, race, nationalities, etc. Chairman had answered them, but she keep pressing on. The lady is completely wasting everyone's time. What is the point of asking these questions? Are you planning to enter the Board of Directors?

As 穷小子 is leaving the AGM, he had decided that OCBC is safe with the management's hands, especially with CEO's spearheading the businesses' operations. Until then, see you in 2018.


Tuesday, 25 April 2017

Happy First Birthday, Poorlearnrich

Happy First Birthday, 穷小子!!

There is no birth date for 穷小子 literally of course, but it will be his first anniversary since his first post. Times flies, while still remembering from how much he had learned along the way for the past year. It has been a while since the last post, and just saw that Poorlearnrich is moving towards 50k views. Thanks for all the supports.. ^^

Pardon for no much significant posts for these past few months, perhaps there may be nothing much to talk (complains) about when Mr Market is in good mood. Market is still not stable as usual, with the UK's early election, tension between US, China and North Korea, French presidential election, and the list continues. Nonethelessly, STI managed to hit a high gain of 10.73% year to date, before coming down to today closed at 9.83%. A nice run so far for 2017.

Attended few AGM this year and quite glad with the results, especially with CapitaComm and Mapletree Comm. Never tired to emphasis again that these are my right choice last year. Hehe.
On the other side, Singapore's Telcos industry is still worrisome, with the disappointing results and the top shareholders from M1 approached potential buyers to sell their combined stakes. This somehow gives 穷小子 an idea that the main shareholders are "begging" for buyers to buy from them and they want to get out as soon as possible. In normal circumstances, if a potential buyer makes an offer to buy, the company may became a gem to be discovered down the years, but M1 seems opposite now. Not trying to talk down M1 in here, but it happened. M1 is still about 10% of 穷小子's portfolio.
Added a small position of Starhub recently with a decent yield of about 5.6% if the payout remains at $0.16 per year. The main reason for this purchase is mainly to average down the price. As mentioned before, local Telco industry will be a long winter for the next few years, so current strategy is to average them down slowly.

Next is review on Noble again. Yes, 穷小子 said before that he will no longer covers Noble again, but this serves as an statement to reminds himself that he had made a right choice to cut it. Although is too late, $780 remaining still serves as a good use for 穷小子's expenses. Noble had announced shares consolidation last month, which 穷小子 had commented when he cut his loss and in his last post about Noble. What can be the next step? Issue rights again? Rinse and repeat? This time really is the last on Noble. :)

Most of the companies had reported their annual reports. 穷小子 will share his portfolio in his next post!!

Last but not least. 穷小子 just came back from his Turkey trip. It is a beautiful country must say, accompanied with a very long history. Shall try to share about it if had the time.


Wednesday, 1 March 2017

February's Portfolio update

We had ended the first two months of 2017, let's see how 穷小子's portfolio performed.

穷小子 has not done anything to his portfolio in 2017 yet.
- Prices are not high enough to sell
- Prices are not low enough to buy
- More importantly is, 穷小子's pocket is still empty. Still building his warchest.

穷小子's portfolio update:

For the period of these first two months, 穷小子 will be receiving a total of S$812.82 of dividends. Slightly more than half of it is much contributed by the newly purchased REITs, feels that these are good purchases so far.

Looking at ComfortDelgro currently after reading some of the thoughts from some of the bloggers and forumers. While trying to wait for his salary and dividends to come in this week, ComfortDelgro had slowly creeping upwards day by day. Shall wait for an opportunity for a good price.

March US interest rates hike
The odds of an increase have jumped above 70 per cent, from 40 percent on Friday. If ComfortDelgro price doesn't comes down, then 穷小子 may change his direction to REITs again. Made quite a good purchases last December, looking to add more either MCT or FCT.

Ezra's joint venture files for bankruptcy. Will this become a domino effects which caused another sell-down on the banks again? As what had happened last year? 穷小子 don't know too, but it will be wise to save some money for banks shopping.

Year 2017
Total dividends: S$812.82
Average dividends per month: S$406.41
Average dividends per day: S$13.78

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

First big spending in 2017

If you had read about 穷小子's style, you would have known that he does not like to have huge spending. Furthermore, he paid them on the spot this time without any much delay. So what did he had bought exactly?

A trip to Turkey, with Air Tickets, Hotels and taxes all in, excluding the tipping and optional. That's right. 穷小子 loves to travel. When was the last time when he spent thousands? Hmm. Think that would be another travel trip, a free and easy to Japan in 2015. He made the payment on the spot at the travel fair last weekend. Don't worry, he had actually did much surveys and comparisons beforehand.
$1389, the exact amount he spent. Fair enough. This is not really a huge amount, but it just doesn't fit into 穷小子's style. Too bad, he just simply cant escape the temptations of it. He loves to explore new things, experience new cultures and interacts with different people. Of course, there is still a passion for his photography. Frugal, but should spent when is worth it, else what is the point for living without its fullest? Experience and passion is something that you can't buy with money literally.

At the travel fair, these are what 穷小子 had observed.

  • There are still a lot of people at the fair. Some maybe for enquires, some may have made the purchase, but the crowd is definitely there. Either we are still far from recessions, or we will only start to fear when the crisis really hit on us.
  • Suntec seems to be losing out at travel events. Natas Fair and Travel Revolutions is held at Expo and Marina Exp respectively since long time ago, if not, for the past 3 years at least. Although the Chan Brothers and other agencies did held concurrently during the same period at Suntec, they are not taking the conventional halls, but only the concourse area.
  • SIA is celebrating their 70th anniversary this year (some good thing to share), and they are partnering with Natas Fair and Travel Revolutions for last and this week respectively. With this, 穷小子 noticed that SIA is available for most of the long-haul flight, this will boost their sales this year if the promotions worked out perfectly for them.
  • 穷小子 will be taking SIA for his upcoming trip as well. He did his homework before the fair since last year. He concludes that the price which he paid for the package tour is lesser than by purely purchasing the air tickets from SIA directly. Flights only to Turkey by SIA is more than $1400, but package tour with hotels is less than $1400. Dont know how they had managed it, but nothing new here, seems like there are some collaborations between SIA and the travel agencies. Not only SIA, other airlines as well.
  • Travel nowadays is definitely much cheaper now than years and decades ago. The YOLO mindset by the younger generations are definitely affecting their parents or even grandparents. Teenagers and young adults are no longer the only target audience anymore, the crowds which 穷小子 observed are occupied by the groups of elder generations actually, who want to travel but avoid the hassles of planning the itineraries themselves.
  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway will invest billions of dollars into the US airline industry, for the second time within six months. The move showed a stunning change of heart for Buffett, who once referred to the US airline industry as a “deathtrap for investors.” Time are changing, and we need to adapt and adopt.
  • SIA is hurting by the increase of budget airlines and from the pressure by the fellow famous Airlines brands. How SIA collaborate with travel agencies is an important factor for SIA to cut its edge out from this challenge industry.
  • SIA has one unique advantage over its competitors, after all, SIA is our iconic brand which carries Singapore flag to fly across worldwide. 穷小子 confirm support SIA if the price doesn't differ by much, and bet that most of the fellow locals feels the same way too.

穷小子 not invested in SIA currently, but start to monitor it.

First time going for a guided tour instead of having a DIY trip. How would the trip be like? We will know it in April.

P.S. Hmm. No wonder he can save almost 50% of his salary for 2016, because he only went to Malaysia and Thailand for that year

Saturday, 4 February 2017

Starhub FY 2016 Financial Results

Starhub FY 2016 results was released last evening. Disappointed results indeed, and seems worse than M1. This shall be a short post with no fancy charts or iconic pictures. 穷小子 had no mood to elaborate further but will not sugar-coat the results.
If you had followed 穷小子 throughout, you must have known that 穷小子 had bought the telcos at early 2015, which is around the all time high and is one of the bad moves. Mainly due to the greed on the attractive dividends yield at that time, and no patience. 穷小子 is not trying to bad-mouth the company but serve more of a reminder to himself. Do remember that he is affected as well.
Total telcos shares holdings is about 29.71% of the total portfolio , and among this telcos shares holdings, Starhub is holding at about 47.68% as of yesterday.

In summary, YoY results:
Total revenue, down 2%
EBITDA, down 3%
Net Profit after Tax, down 8%
FCF / Fully Diluted Share, down 15%

More disappointed at the QoQ results:
Total revenue, Non significant changes
EBITDA, down 14%
Net Profit after Tax, down 33%
FCF / Fully Diluted Share, down more than 300%

Most disappointed will be on the dividends.
FY 2016 will be maintained at $0.05 per quarter, but intend to pay a quarterly dividend of $0.04 per quarter for FY 2017.

Moving forward, 穷小子 will not panic sell, but plan to average down slowly whenever possible.
The attractiveness for this stock gets dimmer as the forecast payout for FY 2017 will be at $0.04 per quarter, $0.16 per year, a 20% cut. This greatly change the stories for 穷小子on Starhub, for all the reasons which he bought in the first place.
Next step will be work hard, save more, and build more warchest. The telco industry in Singapore will going to be a long cold war. Embrace for a sell down on Monday, but who knows how Mr Market may react irrationally again.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017

CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) FY 2016 Financial Results

CCT released their FY 2016 Financial Results this morning. Seems a strong results for 2016 overall per se. 穷小子 shall touch on some of the key factors.
CapitaGreen's contributions is 100% with effect from 01 Sep 2016
Starting off with the much anticipated on CapitaGreen contributions injections to the portfolio. Note that its contributions is 100% only from 01 Sep 2016 onwards, so expecting the 11% to grow continuously for its full contributions in FY 2017. This will be a good news for investors, and if remember correctly, CapitaGreen was funded internally by CCT, with no rights issued that time.
Portfolio up by 13.6% YoY
Portfolio was up by 13.6% YoY, and again mainly due to the increased stake in CapitaGreen.
Debt Maturity
Debt maturity are evenly spread for the next 6 years with 38% matured on FY 2020. Once again, S$890M (27%) are due to the increased stake in CapitaGreen.
CCT did measures to curb the interest rate hikes effects. Only 20% of the borrowings are on Floating Rate.
Portfolio Occupancy rate
Despite oversupply of offices for past few years, CCT is able to consistently above market occupancy, ending the last quarter of 2016 with 97.1% against 95.8%.
Monthly average office rent
Although there is a dipped of 0.2% in the last QoQ, it has been an impressive increasing for the past 17 quarters consecutively.
Well spread of portfolio lease expiry although with majority on 2019. 25% and 7% for Office and Retail respectively.
Consistently delivery value
Every investors' favourite, including 穷小子 too. Income, Assets, DPU and NAV increasing consistently over the years. As Peter Lynch stated in "Beating the Street", "The dividend is such an important factor in the success of many stocks that you could hardly go wrong by making an entire portfolio of companies that have raised their dividends for 10 or 20 years in a row."
Sounds logical.
Consistently above 90%
CCT's portfolio committed an impressive occupancy rate of above 90% consistently for the past 10 years. If omitted the 94.8% in 2009 which is due to Global Financial Crisis, technically speaking should above 95% consistently.

Maybe 穷小子 is bias and a bit of exaggerating in this review because this is the highest holdings REITs stock in his portfolio, but an impressive 10 years track records doesn't lies.
穷小子's concludes that this can be one of the "safe" stock for now until 2019 and 2020, the year which has the most portfolio lease expiry and the highest debt maturity amongst respectively. 穷小子 believes that the management will take necessary measures when the time are nearer.

Sunday, 8 January 2017

What a good start for 2017!!

What a good start for 2017!! STI from 2880.76 on the last day of 2016 to 2962.63 on the end of first week, that's almost a 100 points, roughly 2.84% increased, for a short 4 days. Can we see a STI 3000 by month end?
穷小子 shared about his Christmas Shopping previously, so how have they performed?

Capital Gains
Those REITs which bought on the last month of 2016, grew from a low of negative 2.54% to positive 2.68% averagely. Seems like a strong comeback of 5.22% within 2 weeks. Hmm. But REITs are meant for long-term anyway. Hehe~~

Dividend Yield
These 4 REITs return an average dividend yield of 5.87%. Aiming for a 6% average initially, but perhaps too impatient and afraid of missing the opportunities.

Assuming if the prices and dividend payouts are remain around this range for 2017, these 4 REITs may be able to return a total of about 8.55% this year. Capital Gain + Dividend Gain.
Shall accumulate and re-balance the portfolio if rate hikes again. Is this so called a 把危机转变为商机? Shall revisit this post again by end of 2017.

Lets see how the second week of 2017 performs.